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Stu Ungar Odds Quiz from The Biggest Game in Town 08.09.2003
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Now it's time to test your intuition. How reasonable do you think it was for the players to request a new deal? Is it that improbable that the first four cards would be the same color? Let's find out.
 
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Here is a passage from _The Biggest Game In Town_ by A. Alvarez:

'A couple of hours earlier, the poker players had briefly lost their poker faces when there were still fifteen of them left and Eric Drache announced that the three remaining tables would be amalgamated into two. The seats would be allocated, Drache said, by drawing cards: red for Table One, black for Table Two, one to eight of each color for the seat numbers. Frank, the floor manager, shuffled and dealt while Drache called out the players' names. Suddenly, everybody began protesting at once: the first four cards dealt were all red. Someone shouted "It's a fix!" and the rest chimed in, demanding a new deal. Patiently, Frank gatherd the cards, shuffled, and dealt again: ace, two, three of clubs.

"Ain't possible!" cried Stu Ungar. "It's five thousand to one against!"

"I don't care if it's five million to one," Frank replied. "That's how the cards came and that's how the seating stays."

     "Right," said Drache.
     "Right," said Jack Binion, the final authority.'

Now it's time to test your intuition. How reasonable do you think it was for the players to request a new deal? Is it that improbable that the first four cards would be the same color? Let's find out.

Question #1:

What are the odds of the first four cards coming red? What about the first four cards coming the same color, regardless of which color?

Question #2:

What were the real odds on the cards coming ace, two, three of clubs on the next shuffle that Stu quote as "five thousand to one against"?

Question #3:

Are the odds better for getting ace, two, three of clubs as the first three cards or are they better for getting the first four cards coming red, shuffling, and then getting the first three cards coming black? Are the the odds of the first 7 cards coming red better than the ace, two, three of clubs coming?

Scroll down to check your work.

Question #1:

What are the odds of the first four cards coming red?

The "deck" consists of 16 cards, 8 red, 8 black, so the odds of the first four cards coming red are:

8/16 * 7/15 * 6/14 * 5/13 =

0.5 * 0.4667 * 0.4286 * 0.3846 =

0.0385

0.0385 * 100 = 3.85%

(100 - 3.85) / 3.85 =

96.15 / 3.85 =

25:1

The odds of the first four cards coming the same color, regardless of which color, are about twice as good however, since we don't care what the first card is:

16/16 * 7/15 * 6/14 * 5/13 =

1 * 0.4667 * 0.4286 * 0.3846 =

0.0769

0.0769 * 100 = 7.69%

(100 - 7.69) / 7.69 =

92.31 / 7.69 =

12:1

Not terribly unreasonable at all.

Question #2:

What were the real odds on the cards coming ace, two, three of clubs on the next shuffle that Stu quote as "five thousand to one against"?

1/16 * 1/15 * 1/14 =

0.0625 * 0.0667 * 0.0714 =

0.0003

0.0003 * 100 = 0.03 %

(100 - 0.03) / 0.03 =

99.97 / 0.03 =

3332:1

Pretty close there Stu.

For the rest of the Quiz visit www.everythingsbusted.com

Read more about Stu Ungar at Gamble Tribune:

Visit other sites for movie STUEY:
    STUEY Movie at Yahoo! Groups For all interested in the movie "Stuey", a movie written, produced, and directed by Tony Vidmer. Stu Ungar, or "Stuey" as he was known by all, was arguably one of the world's best card players. This group has many features.

    A Tribute to Stuey Ungar (1953 - 1998) Three Time Champion of the World Series of Poker. "I never want to be called a good loser; if you're a good loser, you're still a loser". - Stuey Ungar

    Official site of movie STUEY Stuey starring Michael Imperioli. Based on a true story, “Stuey” tells the story of Stu “The Kid” Ungar, a card prodigy who grew up playing high-stakes gin rummy. Some people have a gift for science. Some people, a gift for art. Stu Ungar had a gift for cards.

    STEPHANIE UNGAR, 16 poses Wednesday in her bedroom with a photo of her late father, legendary poker player Stu Ungar, who was found dead at a local motel on Sunday.

    BOSTON FILM FESTIVAL Short of a full house.