The game of baccarat can be played with 6 or 8 decks of cards and the probability distribution for a hand dealt from a complete shoe of 6 or 8 decks is as follows:
| # of decks |
Banker wins |
Player wins |
Tie |
| 1 deck |
|
|
|
| 6 decks |
0.458653 |
0.446279 |
0.095069 |
| 8 decks |
0.458597 |
0.446247 |
0.095156 |
The casino's commission on the winning Banker hand (4% or 5%) and payouts
on a tie bet (8:1 or 9:1) implies the following house advantages:
| # of decks |
Banker bet 5% |
Banker bet 4% |
Player bet |
Bet tie 9:1 |
Bet tie 8:1 |
| 1 deck |
1.01% |
|
1.29% |
|
15.57% |
| 6 decks |
1.0558% |
0.5972% |
1.2374% |
4.9313% |
14.4382% |
| 8 decks |
1.0579% |
0.5993% |
1.2351% |
4.8440% |
14.3596% |
The probabilities for possible hands were calculated by Edward O. Thorp in
his classic book "The Mathematics of Gambling".
He also determined that card counting is not effective at the baccarat tables.
It works, but it is about 9 times less effective when compared to blackjack
card counting.
And besides, the advantage of using card counting is " ... easily
eliminated by shuffling the deck".
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