One way to improve the chance of winning is to use statistical analysis to predict the outcome of various hands. The player then plays the way that is statistically the most likely to result in a win.
Because the dealer must play using the house rules he/she/it must always hit with a hand of 16 or less and stand with a hand of 17 or more (some casinos allow the dealer to hit on a soft 17). One of the
dealer's cards is face-up for all to see, and the following predictions for the dealer going bust apply in a single deck scenario.
Dealers face-up card is: |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
Ace |
Percentage chance of busting: |
35% |
37% |
40% |
42% |
42% |
26% |
24% |
23% |
23% |
17% |
It can now be seen that the dealer has a better chance of busting when his face-up card is a six or smaller value card, and less if the face-up card has a value of seven or more. Using this information the following
blackjack strategy was developed:
Hard Hand Rules (When an Ace must be counted as one - uncommon)
- A player who is dealt a hand totaling 12 to 16 when the dealer is showing a low value card (2 to 6) should stand. There is a high probability that the dealer will bust and the player will then win.
- A player who is dealt a hand totaling 12 to 16 when the dealer is showing a high value card (7 to Ace) should take a card. There is a low probability that the dealer will bust and the player should try to improve his
hand in order to win with a higher total.
- If the player is dealt a hand totaling 17 to 21 he/she should stand, the probability of busting on a hit is high.
Soft Hand Rules (Ace counted as a one OR an eleven - typical)
Most casinos allow an ace to be played as either a 1 or 11, whichever value is most beneficial to the holder. When a player has an ace that is being used as an 11, it's referred to as a "soft hand".
These hands are played differently as the player cannot draw to a soft hand and bust (the player just revalues the Ace to count as 1 instead of 11).
The basic strategy for playing soft hands is to double down when the dealer has a high probability of busting (low value face-up cards).
Players Hand |
Strategy |
Soft 19 or 20 |
Stand |
Soft 18 |
Stand if the dealer is showing 2, 7 or 8.
Hit if the dealer is showing 9, 10 or Ace.
Double if the dealer is showing 3, 4, 5 or 6. |
Soft 17 |
Hit if the dealer is showing 2, 7, 8, 9, 10 or Ace.
Double if the dealer is showing 3, 4, 5 or 6. |
Soft 16 or 15 |
Hit if the dealer is showing 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10 or Ace.
Double if the dealer is showing 4, 5 or 6. |
Soft 14 or 13 |
Hit if the dealer is showing 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10 or Ace.
Double if the dealer is showing 5 or 6. |
In the event that you are dealt a card that changes your hand from a soft hand (Ace = 11) to a hard hand (Ace = 1) then change strategies to the hard hand rules discussed previously.
Doubling down allows you to put more money on the table when the odds of winning are good, and you should always bet the maximum amount allowed in these situations. Doubling down should only be done when
the player has a better chance of winning than the dealer, or when you stand to earn more profit by doubling down than by hitting the hand.
Casinos have different rules for doubling down; usually you can only double down after you receive your initial two cards and before you draw a third card, but some casinos will also only allow the option on certain hand values (usually 9, 10 or 11, sometimes 11 or less).
Hard Hand Rules for Doubling Down
Double down when:
- Player has hard 11 and the dealer is showing 2 through 10.
- Player has hard 10 and the dealer is showing 2 through 9.
- Player has hard 9 and the dealer is showing 3 through 6.
Soft Hand Rules for Doubling Down
Double down when:
- Player has (A, 6) or (A, 7) and the dealer is showing 3 through 6.
- Player has (A, 4) or (A, 5) and the dealer is showing 4 through 6.
- Player has (A, 2) or (A, 3) and the dealer is showing 5 or 6.
Some players split all pairs regardless of the pair value - this is not a smart strategy. You should never split a pair of tens or a pair of fives. With two tens you have a total of 20 which is more than likely to be
a winning hand, while a pair of fives total 10 and you have a better chance of drawing a 10 than any other value for a win. You should always split Aces and eights. Again you have a better chance of drawing a card
worth 10 than any other and then you have either 21 (for Aces) or 18 (for eights) - both are hard for the dealer to beat.
All other splitting decisions are made depending on the dealer's face-up card - in general split when the dealer is showing a low value face-up card. Split when:
- Player has a pair of 2's, 3's or 7,s and the dealer is showing 2 through 7.
- Player has a pair of 4's and the dealer is showing 5 or 6.
- Player has a pair of 6's and the dealer is showing 2 through 6.
- Player has a pair of 9's and the dealer is showing 2 through 6, 8 or 9. - If the dealer is showing a 7 and you assume he/she has a hole card worth 10 then your 18 will beat it so you don't split.
This is not a popular blackjack option, and is not offered in many casinos. You surrender when you have a hand that has a very poor chance of winning. Upon surrendering you stop playing and lose one-half of your
bet (thus keeping one-half of the bet rather than losing it all).
When playing multiple deck blackjack games you should only surrender when:
- The player has a hard 15 and the dealer is showing a 10
- The player has a hard 16 and the dealer is showing a 9, 10 or Ace.
When playing two deck Blackjack games you should only surrender when:
- The player has a hard 15 and the dealer is showing a 10
- The player has a hard 16 and the dealer is showing a 10
- The player has a pair of 7's and the dealer is showing a 10
As a general rule you should not take insurance, it is a bad bet. We all get our gut feelings sometimes, but the odds versus payout are never in your favor.
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