The overwhelming appeal of the NCAA Basketball Tournament, aka March Madness, is just that: the Madness. Over 60 games played in just over three weeks, with the best playing the best all across the country and the unpredictable outcomes that ensue. Our infatuation with the Tournament is expressed in this nation's favorite office competition: The Office Pool.
But the notion that you're better off blindly selecting teams to help you fill out your bracket is a fallacy. There are trends that help predict outcomes and there are common characteristics among great, as well as dreadful, Tournament teams. Here now, a 10-point plan to help you get the edge on your Office Pool competition.
1. Throw out the Polls.
From here on-out, we deal in hard numbers and not perception. So forget who's ranked No. 1 by the AP or who's not getting enough respect in the Coach's Poll. What matters now is: what good teams did you play, how did you play against them and where did you play them?
2. Print out your bracket. You can find Tournament brackets just about anywhere: online, in newspapers and church bulletins. For our purposes, we're endorsing SportsLine.com's Bracket since they do such a great job covering the Tournament on their site.
3. Read About.com's In-Depth Team Scouting Reports. Who the heck is Troy State? Well, we've put the hours in researching and grading teams so you don't have to -- now why let that go to waste? What you'll find is all 65 teams graded out on a scale of 1-10 in each of 10 distinct categories that are pivotal in predicting how well a team will perform at March Madness. We compile the ten scores, get subjective by adding or subtracting Bonus Points and come to final score for you to use when comparing teams.
4. Pick your Champion. With our team grades on screen and Bracket in hand, it's time to pick your Champion. Since you get progressively more points awarded to you for every game you get right as the tournament progresses, this will be your most important decision. As fired up as we all get for the opening weekend, whether you win or lose will depend entirely on how your picks perform on the final weekend. And although you've got to go with your gut on this, there are few hard facts to consider when picking your team:
- A No. 1 seed has won the NCAA Basketball Tournament the last four years.
- 12 of the last 13 Champions have been either a 1- or 2-seed.
- At least one 1-seed has made it to the Final Four each of the last 22 years.
Lesson 1: Get conservative in mapping out the Final Four. For all the "Madness", a favorite usually wins it all in the end.
5. Find your Final Four Sleeper. Now that we've established the conservative reality of the Final Four, it's time to pick the one lesser-rated team that will make the Final Four. We're not talking about double-digit seeds here -- the lowest seed to ever make the Final Four was a No. 11 and after that a few No. 8's -- we're talking about a No. 3 or above seed who will break through to the Final weekend. Consider:
- At least one 3 or higher-seed has made it to the Final Four in every year but one since 1979.
- At least one 4 or higher-seed has made it to the Final Four in 17 out of the last 23 years.
Lesson 2: Pick one team seeded 3-8 that you think has the greatest potential to make the Final Four and put them there on your sheet.
6. These go to 11. So we've got our 1-seed and we've got our 3+ seed, what to do with the other two spots in the Final Four? Again, stay conservative. Consider:
- Only once in the last 10 years has the combined sum of the four seed-numbers exceeded 11.
We've got a 1. Now add your other seed's number to that. Subtract that number from 11 ... now how much do you have left over? If you picked a 1-seed and a 4-seed, you've got 6 left over to work with. With your remaining two Final Four picks, you can take (2) No. 3 seeds, take (1) No. 2 seed and either a 1-, 2-, 3- or 4-seed or take (1) No. 1 seed and either a 1-, 2-, 3-, 4- or 5-seed.
7. Pick your Cinderellas. Now that you've got your Final Four teams, it's time to have some fun with the earlier rounds! Obviously, you don't want to accidentally eliminate one of your four Final teams, so fill in the bracket backwards to make sure you have each of the four winning all of their games in the prior four rounds.
So we've got that taken care of -- now let's do the earlier rounds. While the earlier games don't count for as many points, it's still a great feeling when you pick a few upsets that no one saw. How many Cinderellas should you pick? Here's a good guide:
- Only one time in the last 18 years have at least two 12- or higher seeds failed to advance to the Second Round.
- The majority of the time, at least (3) 12- or higher seeds advance to the Second Round.
Ok. So what Cinderellas do I pick? Well, with 60 games to pick before the Final Four, here's a general guide to follow...
8. A less talented, but more experienced team will usually beat a more talented, but less experienced team. You can't put a price on experience. And no matter how skilled a team is, without the experience of having played:
- On such a huge stage.
- With such little rest between games and traveling.
- Against teams they've never heard of.
- In cities if they've never been to.
A highly seeded and amazing young team can get swallowed up and spit out by March Madness before the first day of the Tournament is even half-done. These players are human beings and their games are susceptible to being disrupted by these outside forces. It helps immensely to have been through it all before or to have a few seniors to hold the young kids' hands.
Here's a list of the most Tournament-tested squads: Creighton, Arizona, Xavier, Pitt, Kansas, Maryland, Penn.
And now a list of some wildly popular but wildly inexperienced squads: Syracuse, Florida, Illinois, Wake Forest, Duke, Memphis, UConn.
9. Pick "professional" teams that play as well on the road as they do at home. For all but the top seeds, who get to play in arenas closest to their home-base, every game you play in the NCAA Basketball Tournament is a road game. No hometown fans packing the arena, no home cooking, no sleeping in your own bed and knowing the way to the arena like the back of your hand.
Everyone has to play in unfamiliar territory, sleep in hotel rooms, travel at ungodly hours and deal with getting tickets and transportation for friends and relatives. So how well did a team fare under these conditions during the regular season? Did they enter hostile ground and take it to the opposition? Execute their game plan and play with blinders on? Or did they cower at the sight of thousands of unwelcoming fans? Play like they just wanted to get the game over with and count the minutes until their bus returned home?
Some of the road warriors worthy of notice: Kentucky, Arizona, Penn, Xavier, Stanford, Troy State, Manhattan.
And those who fell to pieces in any unfamiliar zip code: NC State, LSU, UNC Asheville, Michigan State, Alabama, Missouri, Purdue, Colorado, Maryland, UConn.
10. If a team always plays good teams and beats most of them, they won't skip a beat when it comes to the Tournament. With the exception of a few, every team in the NCAA Basketball Tournament is a good team -- and most are great. If a team is used to play great teams week-in and week-out with little time to prepare between big games, then they'll have no problem with the brutal demands of the Tournament.
So what teams played the most power teams and came up winners? Kentucky, Arizona, Stanford, Syracuse, Utah, Marquette, Kansas.
And who fattened up on cupcake teams and pulled up lame in big games? NC State, Gonzaga, BYU, Cal, Maryland, Arizona State, Missouri.
There you have it! You should be on your way to a successful showing in your Office Pool with the help of the above tips and a little serendipity from the Basketball Gods!!!
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